Excess returns cluster in the first week after the announcement and before the effective date. Post-inclusion performance is closer to reversal than continuation, so long-window alpha should not be assumed.
Open noteMar 11, 2026
Excess returns cluster in the first week after the announcement and before the effective date. Post-inclusion performance is closer to reversal than continuation, so long-window alpha should not be assumed.
Mar 10, 2026
The market is closer to a quasi-stagflation setup than a simple growth scare. Growth is cooling, but sticky inflation and the oil shock make the old bad-data-equals-relief playbook much less reliable.